Three-quarters of Finns believe President Sauli Niinistö will secure re-election already in the first round of the presidential elections held on 28 January, 2018, indicates a poll commissioned by Uutissuomalainen and conducted by Tietoykkönen.
Sami Borg, a social scientist at the University of Tampere, points out that the percentage is roughly equivalent to that of voters who would cast their vote for Niinistö.
“In that sense, the number is really reliable at the time of measurement,” he comments to Uutissuomalainen.
The poll also found that 15 per cent of respondents consider it likely that the elections will not be decided until the second round of voting. Ten per cent of respondents, meanwhile, were unable to estimate whether or not a second round of voting will be necessary.
The responses varied especially according to the party preferences of voters.
Up to 90 per cent of National Coalition supporters and 77 per cent of Social Democrats supporters predicted that the incumbent will secure re-election in the first round of voting. Both Finns Party and Left Alliance supporters were less confident in a decisive first-round vote, with 58 per cent of the former and 64 per cent of the latter predicting that a second round will not be necessary.
Borg highlights that the situation is unusual especially for the Social Democrats. “Many well-known politicians have backed Niinistö,” he explains.